Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4PM ET

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up96¢Down4¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$429.12

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 96¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up96%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,482

Combined PnL-$281.47

Down8 traders

Total Value$245.77

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL-$147.65

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Down 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 73.7¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$97.99	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$430	-$70	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$340	+$90
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$90	-$160
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$430	-$70	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$340	+$90
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$90	-$160
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 91.8¢	$547.73	$386.48	-$161.25	48% 661-703 (1364)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 66.7¢	$349.52	$161.64	+$42.09	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 98¢	$825.47	$154.87	-$57.87	46% 985-1137 (2122)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 45.4¢	$279.64	$110.99	-$168.65	48% 1242-1341 (2583)
FI fiankeeCTR	Downavg 50¢	$165.93	$59.73	-$106.2	50% 13-13 (26)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$58.28	$51.82	-$6.46	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$50.18	$20.27	-$29.91	49% 300-308 (608)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 3.3¢	$286.56	$19.81	+$187.91	— 7-6 (13)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$23.08	$12.92	-$10.16	50% 481-481 (962)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 25.9¢	$14.81	$10.3	-$4.51	52% 245-230 (475)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$15.25	$6.3	-$8.95	47% 975-1099 (2074)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$12.62	$5.45	-$7.17	54% 1677-1430 (3107)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,854.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$97.99

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$430

PnL

-$70

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$430

PnL

-$70

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$90

Down$25050¢-$160

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$547.73

Value

$386.48

PnL

-$161.25

Record

48%

661-703 (1364)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$349.52

Value

$161.64

PnL

+$42.09

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$825.47

Value

$154.87

PnL

-$57.87

Record

46%

985-1137 (2122)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$279.64

Value

$110.99

PnL

-$168.65

Record

48%

1242-1341 (2583)

fiankeeCTR

Down

Invested

$165.93

Value

$59.73

PnL

-$106.2

Record

50%

13-13 (26)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$58.28

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$6.46

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.18

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$29.91

Record

49%

300-308 (608)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$286.56

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$187.91

Record

—

7-6 (13)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.08

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$10.16

Record

50%

481-481 (962)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.81

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$4.51

Record

52%

245-230 (475)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.25

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$8.95

Record

47%

975-1099 (2074)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.62

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$7.17

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Down 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.