Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4AM ET

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up10¢Down90¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$173.08

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 90.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up10%

Down91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,446

Combined PnL+$169.78

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,567

Combined PnL+$3.3

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Downavg 77.9¢	$785.02	$821.82	+$36.8	48% 277-297 (574)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.8¢	$668.3	$714.24	+$68.74	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$340.86	$408.01	+$67.15	49% 568-600 (1168)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$266.57	$323.29	+$56.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.6¢	$74.29	$84.72	+$10.43
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.2¢	$1.7K	$384.79	-$36.62	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 45.6¢	$181.67	$176.01	+$0.71	51% 244-238 (482)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$91.77	$94.58	+$2.81	48% 2055-2259 (4314)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$92.5	$92.5	-$0	50% 209-205 (414)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80¢	$49.38	$49.61	+$0.23	60% 2182-1462 (3644)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$44.85	$47.7	+$2.85	47% 778-866 (1644)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 80¢	$566.93	$25.27	+$86.31	47% 859-957 (1816)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$37.05	$23.5	+$11.46	53% 1424-1248 (2672)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$13.5	$13.5	+$0	50% 3953-3959 (7912)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$11.88	$11.66	-$0.22	47% 98-109 (207)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$785.02

Value

$821.82

PnL

+$36.8

Record

48%

277-297 (574)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$668.3

Value

$714.24

PnL

+$68.74

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.86

Value

$408.01

PnL

+$67.15

Record

49%

568-600 (1168)

Both legs:

Down$266.5769.7¢+$56.72

Up$74.2913.6¢+$10.43

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,680.24

Value

$384.79

PnL

-$36.62

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$181.67

Value

$176.01

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

244-238 (482)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$91.77

Value

$94.58

PnL

+$2.81

Record

48%

2055-2259 (4314)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$92.5

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

209-205 (414)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$49.38

Value

$49.61

PnL

+$0.23

Record

60%

2182-1462 (3644)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$44.85

Value

$47.7

PnL

+$2.85

Record

47%

778-866 (1644)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$566.93

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$86.31

Record

47%

859-957 (1816)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$37.05

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$11.46

Record

53%

1424-1248 (2672)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3953-3959 (7912)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

98-109 (207)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.