Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3PM ET

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (82%) · Down at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$513.5

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 94.5¢

+36% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,235

Combined PnL+$726.35

Up3 traders

Total Value$522.26

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$212.84

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$102.58	52% 1443-1311 (2754)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.7¢	$954.53	$1.2K	+$222.94	50% 1950-1946 (3896)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 49¢	$292.41	$519.18	+$226.77	50% 470-473 (943)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51¢	$517.32	$518.28	+$8.36	56% 2444-1918 (4362)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$480	-$20	—
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 79.4¢	$265.01	$244.88	-$20.13	48% 656-701 (1357)
MO mo-money	Downavg 55¢	$122.22	$193.33	+$71.11	48% 862-943 (1805)
AN Anon455	Downavg 72.7¢	$155.7	$186.42	+$30.72	49% 299-307 (606)
AL almach	Downavg 87¢	$171.83	$171.83	+$0	48% 861-930 (1791)
BO bosona	Downavg 67¢	$93.8	$121.8	+$28	50% 4099-4056 (8155)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$45.45	$82.06	+$36.61	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 46.1¢	$218.47	$35.55	-$182.92	— 5-5 (10)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 89.8¢	$878.88	$30.22	+$2.23	46% 975-1122 (2097)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$46.35	$21.11	+$8.82	54% 1661-1410 (3071)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12	$20.88	+$8.88	47% 1391-1589 (2980)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$15.33	$14.78	-$0.55	60% 2502-1683 (4185)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 32.2¢	$16.64	$6.71	-$9.93	52% 244-229 (473)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,578.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$102.58

Record

52%

1443-1311 (2754)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$954.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$222.94

Record

50%

1950-1946 (3896)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$292.41

Value

$519.18

PnL

+$226.77

Record

50%

470-473 (943)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$517.32

Value

$518.28

PnL

+$8.36

Record

56%

2444-1918 (4362)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$480

PnL

-$20

Record

—

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$265.01

Value

$244.88

PnL

-$20.13

Record

48%

656-701 (1357)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$122.22

Value

$193.33

PnL

+$71.11

Record

48%

862-943 (1805)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$155.7

Value

$186.42

PnL

+$30.72

Record

49%

299-307 (606)

almach

Down

Invested

$171.83

Value

$171.83

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

861-930 (1791)

bosona

Down

Invested

$93.8

Value

$121.8

PnL

+$28

Record

50%

4099-4056 (8155)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$45.45

Value

$82.06

PnL

+$36.61

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$218.47

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$182.92

Record

—

5-5 (10)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$878.88

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$2.23

Record

46%

975-1122 (2097)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$46.35

Value

$21.11

PnL

+$8.82

Record

54%

1661-1410 (3071)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$20.88

PnL

+$8.88

Record

47%

1391-1589 (2980)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$15.33

Value

$14.78

PnL

-$0.55

Record

60%

2502-1683 (4185)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$16.64

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$9.93

Record

52%

244-229 (473)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.