Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3AM ET

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (46%) · Down at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$208.97

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 98¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,908

Combined PnL+$368.43

Up7 traders

Total Value$879.07

Total Shares3,376

Combined PnL-$159.47

Down — 46%Up — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Downavg 71.3¢	$736.63	$987.17	+$250.54	49% 266-282 (548)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$512.6	$505.4	+$0.2	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$262.6	$330.2	+$67.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240	$175.2	-$67.4
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 67.9¢	$331.18	$475.82	+$144.64	47% 843-952 (1795)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 64.4¢	$253.15	$176.3	-$28.27	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 47.1¢	$181.8	$165.56	-$1.09	51% 235-230 (465)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 88.5¢	$174.49	$164.49	-$10.01	49% 563-593 (1156)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 10.3¢	$75.1	$65.91	-$9.18	46% 718-833 (1551)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 9.4¢	$61.38	$61.84	+$0.46	47% 716-816 (1532)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$54.42	$57.21	+$2.79	50% 3943-3950 (7893)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$20.05	$24.71	+$10.98	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 24.9¢	$22.4	$19.35	-$3.05	51% 207-202 (409)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48¢	$17.69	$18.24	+$0.55	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 25.9¢	$158.59	$9.2	-$149.4	51% 1610-1559 (3169)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$736.63

Value

$987.17

PnL

+$250.54

Record

49%

266-282 (548)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$512.6

Value

$505.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Both legs:

Down$262.650.5¢+$67.6

Up$24050¢-$67.4

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$331.18

Value

$475.82

PnL

+$144.64

Record

47%

843-952 (1795)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$253.15

Value

$176.3

PnL

-$28.27

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$181.8

Value

$165.56

PnL

-$1.09

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$174.49

Value

$164.49

PnL

-$10.01

Record

49%

563-593 (1156)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$75.1

Value

$65.91

PnL

-$9.18

Record

46%

718-833 (1551)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$61.38

Value

$61.84

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

716-816 (1532)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$54.42

Value

$57.21

PnL

+$2.79

Record

50%

3943-3950 (7893)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$20.05

Value

$24.71

PnL

+$10.98

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$3.05

Record

51%

207-202 (409)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$17.69

Value

$18.24

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$158.59

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$149.4

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.