Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2PM ET

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$572.43

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 97.5¢

+54% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,682

Combined PnL+$773.87

Up6 traders

Total Value$732.47

Total Shares1,745

Combined PnL-$201.44

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Down 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 66.1¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$281.29	50% 1923-1911 (3834)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$512.6	$517.2	+$11.4	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	-$0	—
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.3¢	$242.65	$476.88	+$234.24	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.9¢	$104.01	$206.14	+$102.13	50% 466-464 (930)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 94.6¢	$919.38	$198.66	+$22.7	46% 965-1112 (2077)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 50¢	$180	$180	-$0	53% 314-280 (594)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.2¢	$642.75	$155.62	+$26.21	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
AN Anon455	Downavg 77.2¢	$125.22	$150.9	+$25.68	49% 299-306 (605)
AL almach	Downavg 72¢	$99.06	$128.65	+$29.59	48% 859-914 (1773)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$55.7	$68.38	+$12.68	60% 2481-1663 (4144)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$43.46	$55.94	+$12.48	48% 859-929 (1788)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 25.7¢	$64.33	$26.71	-$37.62	49% 653-689 (1342)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$10.5	$19.53	+$9.03	47% 1374-1576 (2950)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 36.9¢	$172.84	$12.64	-$160.21	— 4-4 (8)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 4.1¢	$41.66	$11.68	+$6.71	50% 4095-4042 (8137)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 65¢	$18.7	$5.15	+$6.44	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$11.77	$1.44	-$10.33	49% 124-131 (255)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,347.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$281.29

Record

50%

1923-1911 (3834)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$512.6

Value

$517.2

PnL

+$11.4

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$0

Record

—

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$242.65

Value

$476.88

PnL

+$234.24

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$104.01

Value

$206.14

PnL

+$102.13

Record

50%

466-464 (930)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$919.38

Value

$198.66

PnL

+$22.7

Record

46%

965-1112 (2077)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$180

Value

$180

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

314-280 (594)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$642.75

Value

$155.62

PnL

+$26.21

Record

53%

1432-1294 (2726)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$125.22

Value

$150.9

PnL

+$25.68

Record

49%

299-306 (605)

almach

Down

Invested

$99.06

Value

$128.65

PnL

+$29.59

Record

48%

859-914 (1773)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$55.7

Value

$68.38

PnL

+$12.68

Record

60%

2481-1663 (4144)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$43.46

Value

$55.94

PnL

+$12.48

Record

48%

859-929 (1788)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$64.33

Value

$26.71

PnL

-$37.62

Record

49%

653-689 (1342)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$9.03

Record

47%

1374-1576 (2950)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$172.84

Value

$12.64

PnL

-$160.21

Record

—

4-4 (8)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$41.66

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$6.71

Record

50%

4095-4042 (8137)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$18.7

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$6.44

Record

54%

1637-1402 (3039)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.77

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$10.33

Record

49%

124-131 (255)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Down 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.