Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (58%) · Up at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up80¢Down20¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$210.09

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 79.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up80%

Down21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL-$33.66

Down5 traders

Total Value$354.83

Total Shares995

Combined PnL-$176.43

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Up 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$144.98	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$242.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$853.01	$465.41	-$387.6
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 61.2¢	$660.72	$670.58	+$9.86	49% 563-593 (1156)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$405	+$155
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$105	-$145
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$405	+$155
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$105	-$145
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 63.2¢	$934.2	$415.99	-$60.46	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
DE devonpollCTR	Downavg 50¢	$180	$173.92	-$2.4	51% 235-230 (465)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$691.11	$145.14	-$6.55	47% 843-952 (1795)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$95.59	$107.22	-$43.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$48.18	$37.92	+$36.73
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 47.3¢	$280.12	$124.29	-$155.83	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 53¢	$45	$50	+$5	51% 207-202 (409)
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$42.35	$44.85	+$2.5	49% 266-282 (548)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$27.1	$26.45	-$0.65	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
EA Easol69<$100	Upavg 70¢	$20.81	$24.08	+$3.27	— 1-7 (8)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$39.64	$21.01	-$9.16	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 63¢	$12.16	$15.63	+$3.47	47% 98-109 (207)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 53¢	$7.3	$10	+$2.7	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$17.54	$9.15	-$8.39	53% 1405-1239 (2644)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$2,073.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$144.98

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

Both legs:

Up$1,186.4560.3¢+$242.62

Down$853.0150.4¢-$387.6

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$660.72

Value

$670.58

PnL

+$9.86

Record

49%

563-593 (1156)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$155

Down$25050¢-$145

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$155

Down$25050¢-$145

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$934.2

Value

$415.99

PnL

-$60.46

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

devonpollCTR

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$173.92

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

235-230 (465)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$691.11

Value

$145.14

PnL

-$6.55

Record

47%

843-952 (1795)

Both legs:

Up$95.5960.2¢-$43.28

Down$48.1841.3¢+$36.73

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$280.12

Value

$124.29

PnL

-$155.83

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$50

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

207-202 (409)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$42.35

Value

$44.85

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

266-282 (548)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.1

Value

$26.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Easol69<$100

Invested

$20.81

Value

$24.08

PnL

+$3.27

Record

—

1-7 (8)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.64

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$9.16

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$15.63

PnL

+$3.47

Record

47%

98-109 (207)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.7

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.54

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$8.39

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Up 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.