Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (91%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1PM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 9.5¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up10¢Down90¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$791.14

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 9.5¢

-81% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up10%

Down91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,482

Combined PnL-$409.91

Down4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL-$381.23

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 55.8¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$413.49	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 84.4¢	$1.8K	$980.11	-$402.46	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$525.55	$496	-$18.64	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$250.48	$393.5	+$137.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$252.31	$102.5	-$155.7
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$376.45	$382.15	+$5.7	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$282.82	$283.75	+$0.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$93.63	$98.41	+$4.78
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 71.7¢	$497.81	$210.56	+$19.01	47% 943-1084 (2027)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$145.76	$157.06	+$11.3	48% 1191-1298 (2489)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 42¢	$118.44	$125.49	+$7.05	50% 4072-4027 (8099)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$83.28	$83.42	+$0.14	49% 640-663 (1303)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$60.1	$42.3	-$5.24	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$34.57	$28.23	-$6.34	51% 237-225 (462)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 14.5¢	$30.72	$22.26	-$8.46	— 2-1 (3)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 49¢	$11.36	$18.81	+$7.45	54% 1603-1367 (2970)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$11.8	$11.7	-$0.1	47% 107-120 (227)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$1,933.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$413.49

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,788.33

Value

$980.11

PnL

-$402.46

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$525.55

Value

$496

PnL

-$18.64

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Down$250.4850.6¢+$137.06

Up$252.3150.5¢-$155.7

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$376.45

Value

$382.15

PnL

+$5.7

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Both legs:

Invested

$497.81

Value

$210.56

PnL

+$19.01

Record

47%

943-1084 (2027)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$145.76

Value

$157.06

PnL

+$11.3

Record

48%

1191-1298 (2489)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$118.44

Value

$125.49

PnL

+$7.05

Record

50%

4072-4027 (8099)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$83.28

Value

$83.42

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

640-663 (1303)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$60.1

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$5.24

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$34.57

Value

$28.23

PnL

-$6.34

Record

51%

237-225 (462)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$8.46

Record

—

2-1 (3)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$11.36

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$7.45

Record

54%

1603-1367 (2970)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

107-120 (227)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.2%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$796.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

896.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.