Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up52¢Down48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$117.55

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 51.5¢

-18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up52%

Down49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$717.95

Total Shares883

Combined PnL-$118.06

Down5 traders

Total Value$141.25

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$0.51

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$65.39	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$622.11	$762.8	+$140.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$640.62	$565.32	-$75.3
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$534.05	$503.61	-$5.69	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$258.49	$308.81	+$44.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$245.68	$194.81	-$50.45
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$279.72	$266.72	-$4.6	48% 554-589 (1143)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$174.66	$189.24	+$14.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$95.2	$77.48	-$19.19
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$948.47	$245.51	-$46.99	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$167.45	$163.76	+$19.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$88.56	$81.75	-$66.11
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$477.39	$198.11	+$0.1	47% 823-928 (1751)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$86.09	$112.49	+$71.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$104.56	$85.62	-$71.58
AN Anon455	Upavg 84.3¢	$287.57	$170.38	-$117.19	47% 236-262 (498)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$192.9	$169.24	-$7.46	50% 216-217 (433)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$91.03	$97.46	+$8.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$82.5	$71.78	-$16.13
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$49.31	$50.85	+$1.54	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$22.51	$30.67	+$8.16	50% 3925-3931 (7856)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$19.1	$22.57	+$3.47	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$13.93	$21.55	+$7.62	47% 700-792 (1492)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$16.73	$16.54	-$0.19	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$35.9	$15.62	-$20.28	46% 699-813 (1512)
BE beeemw<$100	Upavg 78¢	$15	$14.9	-$0.1	— 7-4 (11)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 50¢	$11.21	$11.32	+$0.11	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 44¢	$5.5	$4.81	-$0.69	51% 199-192 (391)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,262.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$65.39

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

Both legs:

Down$622.1135.5¢+$140.69

Up$640.6264¢-$75.3

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$534.05

Value

$503.61

PnL

-$5.69

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$258.4949.8¢+$44.75

Up$245.6851.1¢-$50.45

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.72

Value

$266.72

PnL

-$4.6

Record

48%

554-589 (1143)

Both legs:

Down$174.6642.9¢+$14.58

Up$95.265.7¢-$19.19

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$948.47

Value

$245.51

PnL

-$46.99

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

Both legs:

Down$167.4546.5¢+$19.12

Up$88.5659¢-$66.11

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$477.39

Value

$198.11

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

823-928 (1751)

Both legs:

Down$86.0933.3¢+$71.68

Up$104.5669¢-$71.58

Anon455

Invested

$287.57

Value

$170.38

PnL

-$117.19

Record

47%

236-262 (498)

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$192.9

Value

$169.24

PnL

-$7.46

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

Both legs:

Up$91.0352.8¢+$8.66

Down$82.550¢-$16.13

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.31

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$1.54

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.51

Value

$30.67

PnL

+$8.16

Record

50%

3925-3931 (7856)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.1

Value

$22.57

PnL

+$3.47

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.93

Value

$21.55

PnL

+$7.62

Record

47%

700-792 (1492)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$16.73

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$0.19

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.9

Value

$15.62

PnL

-$20.28

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

beeemw<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

7-4 (11)

suntori<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.32

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.69

Record

51%

199-192 (391)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.