Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$63.09

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 96.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,037

Combined PnL-$59.81

Down4 traders

Total Value$40.05

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$3.29

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$219.4	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 68.9¢	$807.93	$651.32	+$155.22	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$215	-$35
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$215	-$35
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 20.4¢	$128.63	$246.03	+$117.4	49% 640-663 (1303)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.4¢	$64.82	$183.02	+$118.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$63.81	$63.01	-$0.8
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 55.5¢	$459.65	$229.09	-$13.04	47% 943-1084 (2027)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$183.6	+$3.6	53% 314-279 (593)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$90	$106.2	+$16.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$77.4	-$12.6
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 88.2¢	$95.55	$73.42	-$6.18	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$53.2	$63.1	+$9.9	51% 237-225 (462)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 45¢	$11.97	$25.67	+$13.7	47% 107-120 (227)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$18.44	$16.49	-$1.95	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$13.8	$12.75	-$1.05	54% 1603-1367 (2970)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 5.1¢	$8.36	$5.71	-$2.65	— 2-1 (3)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$2.74	$5.1	+$2.37	49% 296-303 (599)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,058.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$219.4

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$807.93

Value

$651.32

PnL

+$155.22

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$45

Down$25050¢-$35

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.63

Value

$246.03

PnL

+$117.4

Record

49%

640-663 (1303)

Both legs:

Down$64.8220.4¢+$118.2

Up$63.8143¢-$0.8

rabadabadoo

Invested

$459.65

Value

$229.09

PnL

-$13.04

Record

47%

943-1084 (2027)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$183.6

PnL

+$3.6

Record

53%

314-279 (593)

Both legs:

Up$9050¢+$16.2

Down$9050¢-$12.6

aaa221<$100

Invested

$95.55

Value

$73.42

PnL

-$6.18

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$53.2

Value

$63.1

PnL

+$9.9

Record

51%

237-225 (462)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$25.67

PnL

+$13.7

Record

47%

107-120 (227)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.44

Value

$16.49

PnL

-$1.95

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.8

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

54%

1603-1367 (2970)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.36

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$2.65

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.74

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$2.37

Record

49%

296-303 (599)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.