Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12AM ET

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (94%) · Down at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 94%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$838.97

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 96¢

+43% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,086

Combined PnL+$788.03

Up1 trader

Total Value$0.14

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$50.94

Down — 94%Up — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$390.44	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 70.8¢	$845.21	$760.25	+$147.03	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5	—
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$518.2	$494.36	+$1.87	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 68.9¢	$365.69	$441.91	+$76.21	48% 554-589 (1143)
BO bosona	Downavg 86.5¢	$269.42	$292.9	+$23.48	50% 3925-3931 (7856)
AN Anon455	Downavg 79.5¢	$236.23	$271.93	+$35.7	47% 236-262 (498)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 76.2¢	$471.24	$214.27	+$1.16	47% 823-928 (1751)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$180	$181.8	+$1.8	50% 216-217 (433)
AL almach	Downavg 82.6¢	$540.92	$85.69	+$71.85	47% 700-792 (1492)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 81¢	$70.37	$67.32	-$3.05	51% 199-192 (391)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66¢	$42.59	$54.85	+$12.26	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$14.33	$24.85	+$10.52	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$56.56	$20.06	+$13.5	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$8.25	$8.5	+$0.25	47% 753-850 (1603)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 6¢	$412.12	$0.14	+$50.94	46% 699-813 (1512)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,121.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$390.44

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$845.21

Value

$760.25

PnL

+$147.03

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$505

PnL

+$5

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$518.2

Value

$494.36

PnL

+$1.87

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$365.69

Value

$441.91

PnL

+$76.21

Record

48%

554-589 (1143)

bosona

Down

Invested

$269.42

Value

$292.9

PnL

+$23.48

Record

50%

3925-3931 (7856)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$236.23

Value

$271.93

PnL

+$35.7

Record

47%

236-262 (498)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$471.24

Value

$214.27

PnL

+$1.16

Record

47%

823-928 (1751)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$181.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

almach

Down

Invested

$540.92

Value

$85.69

PnL

+$71.85

Record

47%

700-792 (1492)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$70.37

Value

$67.32

PnL

-$3.05

Record

51%

199-192 (391)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$42.59

Value

$54.85

PnL

+$12.26

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$14.33

Value

$24.85

PnL

+$10.52

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$56.56

Value

$20.06

PnL

+$13.5

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

753-850 (1603)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$412.12

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$50.94

Record

46%

699-813 (1512)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.