Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (92%) · Down at 81¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 12

Up20¢Down80¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 80.5¢

+44% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 12 top traders (92%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up20%

Down81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,615

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Up1 trader

Total Value$601.11

Total Shares2,357

Combined PnL-$325.01

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	+$797.68	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$595.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.6¢	$590.35	$787.57	+$201.96
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.9¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$971.6	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$985.7	$1.1K	+$131.97	49% 624-641 (1265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$704.55	$823.22	+$118.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.4¢	$281.14	$294.45	+$13.3
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$918.25	$882.48	+$403.23	48% 822-890 (1712)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$442.63	$693.28	+$226.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.8¢	$165.25	$189.2	+$176.78
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$891.42	$812.33	+$350.68	50% 4052-4009 (8061)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$422.45	$632.6	+$174.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.6¢	$153.89	$179.73	+$175.83
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.2¢	$471.44	$779.63	+$308.18	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 43.7¢	$428.66	$765.68	+$337.02	50% 437-429 (866)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$738.1	$743.42	+$321.79	48% 818-877 (1695)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$368.66	$572.99	+$185.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.6¢	$146.78	$170.43	+$136.17
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 39.3¢	$926.12	$601.11	-$325.01	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$470	-$30	—
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$470	-$30	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$323.06	$319.15	-$3.91	51% 232-221 (453)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$189.84	$238.01	+$48.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$133.22	$81.14	-$52.08
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$2.4K	$281.68	+$49.06	47% 926-1058 (1984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$202.17	$186.56	-$291.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.6¢	$30.63	$95.12	+$340.67
AN Anon455	Downavg 61.8¢	$221.88	$275.56	+$53.68	49% 291-303 (594)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 73.8¢	$230.34	$232.43	+$2.1	—
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$183.44	$172.97	+$4.67	53% 312-279 (591)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$82.5	$122.93	+$45.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$90	$50.04	-$40.56
AA aaa221	Downavg 72.8¢	$159.79	$54.94	+$8.09	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 45¢	$9.9	$17.16	+$7.26	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$8.4	$15.55	+$7.15	47% 912-1024 (1936)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$51.1	$10.49	+$5.58	54% 1563-1340 (2903)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,197.31

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$797.68

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

Both legs:

Down$1,582.355.6¢+$595.72

Up$590.3517.6¢+$201.96

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,025.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$971.6

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$985.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.97

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

Both legs:

Down$704.5565.5¢+$118.66

Up$281.1422.4¢+$13.3

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$918.25

Value

$882.48

PnL

+$403.23

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

Both legs:

Down$442.6355.2¢+$226.45

Up$165.2511.8¢+$176.78

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$891.42

Value

$812.33

PnL

+$350.68

Record

50%

4052-4009 (8061)

Both legs:

Down$422.4557.8¢+$174.85

Up$153.8911.6¢+$175.83

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$471.44

Value

$779.63

PnL

+$308.18

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$428.66

Value

$765.68

PnL

+$337.02

Record

50%

437-429 (866)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$738.1

Value

$743.42

PnL

+$321.79

Record

48%

818-877 (1695)

Both legs:

Down$368.6655.7¢+$185.63

Up$146.7811.6¢+$136.17

suntoriCTR

Invested

$926.12

Value

$601.11

PnL

-$325.01

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$470

PnL

-$30

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$470

PnL

-$30

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$323.06

Value

$319.15

PnL

-$3.91

Record

51%

232-221 (453)

Both legs:

Down$189.8462.2¢+$48.17

Up$133.2236.1¢-$52.08

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,434.74

Value

$281.68

PnL

+$49.06

Record

47%

926-1058 (1984)

Both legs:

Down$202.1782.9¢-$291.61

Up$30.637.6¢+$340.67

Anon455

Down

Invested

$221.88

Value

$275.56

PnL

+$53.68

Record

49%

291-303 (594)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$230.34

Value

$232.43

PnL

+$2.1

Record

—

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$183.44

Value

$172.97

PnL

+$4.67

Record

53%

312-279 (591)

Both legs:

Invested

$159.79

Value

$54.94

PnL

+$8.09

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$9.9

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$7.26

Record

47%

1321-1484 (2805)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$8.4

Value

$15.55

PnL

+$7.15

Record

47%

912-1024 (1936)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$51.1

Value

$10.49

PnL

+$5.58

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 12 top traders (92%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.