Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (43%) · Up at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up87¢Down13¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$70.25

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 87¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up87%

Down13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$662.46

Total Shares751

Combined PnL+$75.2

Down4 traders

Total Value$98.65

Total Shares211

Combined PnL-$4.95

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 74.5¢	$540.93	$627.15	+$86.22	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.3¢	$272.11	$265.81	+$3	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.3¢	$178.14	$210.79	+$34.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.9¢	$86.74	$55.02	-$31.72
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 18.7¢	$148.69	$135.92	-$12.78	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$52.67	$77	+$24.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.7¢	$96.02	$58.92	-$37.1
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$83.78	$84.64	+$0.85	46% 656-776 (1432)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$34.26	$22.64	-$11.62	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 70¢	$12.07	$12.67	+$0.6	45% 66-82 (148)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$6.38	$6.44	+$0.07	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
D8 0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.94	$5.88	-$0.06	—
14 0x1404...de47CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$7.51	$1.69	-$5.81	—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$540.93

Value

$627.15

PnL

+$86.22

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

0xdc3f...4fa0ARB<$100

Invested

$272.11

Value

$265.81

PnL

+$3

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$178.1472.3¢+$34.72

Down$86.7422.9¢-$31.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.69

Value

$135.92

PnL

-$12.78

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

Both legs:

Up$52.6760.5¢+$24.33

Down$96.0218.7¢-$37.1

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.78

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$0.85

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$34.26

Value

$22.64

PnL

-$11.62

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.07

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.6

Record

45%

66-82 (148)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

0x1404...de47CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.51

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$5.81

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.7%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.