Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$201.87

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 99.9¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$229.71

Up2 traders

Total Value$1.44

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$27.84

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 76.8¢	$577.72	$670.5	+$101.78	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
BO bosona	Downavg 80¢	$177.6	$216.67	+$39.07	50% 3878-3890 (7768)
AL almach	Downavg 82.5¢	$141.53	$167.4	+$25.87	47% 654-750 (1404)
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.2¢	$99.99	$124.83	+$24.83	46% 656-776 (1432)
AN Anon455	Downavg 71.6¢	$87.98	$119.93	+$31.94	45% 185-223 (408)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 89.2¢	$71.03	$68.01	-$3.02	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$35.85	$45.08	+$9.23	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$33.08	$1.35	-$31.73	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.2	$0.09	+$3.89	58% 2028-1497 (3525)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$577.72

Value

$670.5

PnL

+$101.78

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

bosona

Down

Invested

$177.6

Value

$216.67

PnL

+$39.07

Record

50%

3878-3890 (7768)

almach

Down

Invested

$141.53

Value

$167.4

PnL

+$25.87

Record

47%

654-750 (1404)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$99.99

Value

$124.83

PnL

+$24.83

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$87.98

Value

$119.93

PnL

+$31.94

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$71.03

Value

$68.01

PnL

-$3.02

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$35.85

Value

$45.08

PnL

+$9.23

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$33.08

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$31.73

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$3.89

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.