Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8AM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Up12¢Down88¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$791.43

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 88.5¢

+72% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up12%

Down89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,112

Combined PnL+$783.76

Up1 trader

Total Value$21.47

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$7.67

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.4¢	$473.98	$859.2	+$385.22	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.4¢	$830.24	$826.47	-$3.77	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46.2¢	$305.1	$567.48	+$262.38	46% 809-946 (1755)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 52.1¢	$430.86	$546.83	+$115.97	53% 938-848 (1786)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$32.88	$47.47	+$14.59	44% 176-220 (396)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$13.66	$22.52	+$8.86	53% 1050-932 (1982)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$13.8	$21.47	+$7.67	45% 534-658 (1192)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 57¢	$24.18	$17.2	+$0.5	58% 1663-1228 (2891)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$473.98

Value

$859.2

PnL

+$385.22

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$830.24

Value

$826.47

PnL

-$3.77

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$305.1

Value

$567.48

PnL

+$262.38

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$430.86

Value

$546.83

PnL

+$115.97

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$32.88

Value

$47.47

PnL

+$14.59

Record

44%

176-220 (396)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.66

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$8.86

Record

53%

1050-932 (1982)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$7.67

Record

45%

534-658 (1192)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$24.18

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

1663-1228 (2891)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.