Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Up9¢Down91¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$730.51

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 91.5¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up9%

Down92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,653

Combined PnL+$740.6

Up2 traders

Total Value$22.36

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$10.09

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$195.85	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
AL almach	Downavg 46.5¢	$562.8	$1.0K	+$455.85	46% 613-725 (1338)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87.4¢	$780.36	$730.63	-$31.03	53% 1080-957 (2037)
BO bosona	Downavg 53.5¢	$261.62	$339.71	+$78.09	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
MO mo-money	Downavg 46.7¢	$283.73	$306.52	+$22.8	45% 619-745 (1364)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 43¢	$49.26	$56.7	+$7.45	48% 950-1050 (2000)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$17.25	$28.85	+$11.6	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$44.1	$20.9	-$23.2	45% 182-222 (404)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 18.5¢	$14.55	$1.46	+$13.11	58% 1948-1427 (3375)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,202.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$195.85

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

almach

Down

Invested

$562.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$455.85

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$780.36

Value

$730.63

PnL

-$31.03

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

bosona

Down

Invested

$261.62

Value

$339.71

PnL

+$78.09

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$283.73

Value

$306.52

PnL

+$22.8

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$49.26

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$7.45

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.25

Value

$28.85

PnL

+$11.6

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$44.1

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$23.2

Record

45%

182-222 (404)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$13.11

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.0%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.