Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$122.13

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 98.6¢

+59% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$627.5

Total Shares902

Combined PnL-$14.06

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$136.19

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 39¢	$638.27	$627.4	-$10.86	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.1¢	$317.43	$399.64	+$82.22	48% 950-1050 (2000)
AN Anon455	Downavg 79.5¢	$255.49	$314.78	+$59.28	45% 182-222 (404)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 67.4¢	$262.88	$236.35	-$26.53	53% 1080-957 (2037)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$11.46	$23.96	+$12.5	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$11.48	$22.68	+$11.2	45% 619-745 (1364)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$47.12	$7.61	-$4.4	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 46¢	$1.7	$3.63	+$1.93	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$3.29	$0.09	-$3.2	52% 178-166 (344)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$638.27

Value

$627.4

PnL

-$10.86

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$317.43

Value

$399.64

PnL

+$82.22

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$255.49

Value

$314.78

PnL

+$59.28

Record

45%

182-222 (404)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$262.88

Value

$236.35

PnL

-$26.53

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$11.46

Value

$23.96

PnL

+$12.5

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$11.48

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$11.2

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$47.12

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$4.4

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$1.7

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$1.93

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.2

Record

52%

178-166 (344)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.