Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4PM ET

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (30%) · Down at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 30%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$201.48

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 96.5¢

+55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,861

Combined PnL-$95.81

Up7 traders

Total Value$241.36

Total Shares710

Combined PnL-$105.67

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$83.13	50% 1247-1236 (2483)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 57.6¢	$237.22	$216.15	-$21.07	53% 1061-944 (2005)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 46¢	$119.59	$75.39	-$44.19	46% 606-715 (1321)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$93.45	$58.91	-$34.54	45% 611-735 (1346)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$33.77	$49.86	+$16.09	52% 176-162 (338)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$51.7	$31.9	-$19.8	48% 937-1035 (1972)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$16.44	$24.83	+$8.39	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$38.29	$20.36	-$17.93	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.65	$2.75	-$1.9	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 74¢	$5.58	$2.19	-$3.39	45% 181-221 (402)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,703.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$83.13

Record

50%

1247-1236 (2483)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$237.22

Value

$216.15

PnL

-$21.07

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

almachCTR

Invested

$119.59

Value

$75.39

PnL

-$44.19

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$93.45

Value

$58.91

PnL

-$34.54

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$33.77

Value

$49.86

PnL

+$16.09

Record

52%

176-162 (338)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$51.7

Value

$31.9

PnL

-$19.8

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$16.44

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$8.39

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$38.29

Value

$20.36

PnL

-$17.93

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$3.39

Record

45%

181-221 (402)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.