Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 3PM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$200.6

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 97.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,739

Combined PnL+$201.19

Down2 traders

Total Value$1.98

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$0.6

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.8¢	$722.23	$856.28	+$134.04	50% 1234-1231 (2465)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.7¢	$592.92	$640.88	+$57.76	53% 1052-936 (1988)
AN Anon455	Upavg 84.1¢	$147.42	$163.94	+$16.51	45% 181-221 (402)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 92.5¢	$50	$40	-$10	53% 1174-1038 (2212)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 67¢	$12.07	$14.95	+$2.88	45% 64-79 (143)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 16.2¢	$1.33	$1.4	+$0.06	52% 171-156 (327)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$1.25	$0.59	-$0.66	48% 1398-1531 (2929)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$722.23

Value

$856.28

PnL

+$134.04

Record

50%

1234-1231 (2465)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$592.92

Value

$640.88

PnL

+$57.76

Record

53%

1052-936 (1988)

Anon455

Invested

$147.42

Value

$163.94

PnL

+$16.51

Record

45%

181-221 (402)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$40

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

1174-1038 (2212)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.07

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$2.88

Record

45%

64-79 (143)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

171-156 (327)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.66

Record

48%

1398-1531 (2929)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.