Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Up56¢Down44¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$218.84

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 55.5¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up56%

Down45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$725.97

Total Shares1,084

Combined PnL+$241.94

Down2 traders

Total Value$69.68

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$23.11

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Up 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$212.36	50% 1187-1186 (2373)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$1.0K	$871.36	-$163
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$745.37	$696.01	-$49.36
MO mo-money	Upavg 44¢	$264	$402	+$138	45% 584-705 (1289)
38 38791873984189	Upavg 46.6¢	$127.95	$183.88	+$55.93	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$146.36	$156.76	+$10.4	53% 1030-912 (1942)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.9¢	$65.76	$97.02	+$31.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$80.6	$59.74	-$20.86
BO bosona	Upavg 44¢	$88.92	$135.41	+$46.48	50% 3804-3824 (7628)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$68.5	$49.5	-$19	52% 161-150 (311)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$24.28	$20.18	-$4.11	53% 1135-1010 (2145)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Upavg 43¢	$5.16	$4.69	+$1.53	58% 1820-1334 (3154)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,802.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$212.36

Record

50%

1187-1186 (2373)

Both legs:

Up$1,023.4560.5¢-$163

Down$745.3751.9¢-$49.36

mo-money

Invested

$264

Value

$402

PnL

+$138

Record

45%

584-705 (1289)

38791873984189

Invested

$127.95

Value

$183.88

PnL

+$55.93

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$146.36

Value

$156.76

PnL

+$10.4

Record

53%

1030-912 (1942)

Both legs:

Down$65.7632.9¢+$31.26

Up$80.669.5¢-$20.86

bosona

Invested

$88.92

Value

$135.41

PnL

+$46.48

Record

50%

3804-3824 (7628)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.5

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$19

Record

52%

161-150 (311)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.28

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$4.11

Record

53%

1135-1010 (2145)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$1.53

Record

58%

1820-1334 (3154)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Up 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.