Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (89%) · Up at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 89%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$370.21

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 99.9¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,794

Combined PnL+$543.3

Down1 trader

Total Value$1.71

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL-$173.09

Up — 89%Down — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 88.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$120.13	53% 1012-899 (1911)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 71.5¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$473.01	50% 1159-1165 (2324)
BO bosona	Upavg 46¢	$165.22	$325.55	+$160.33	50% 3793-3812 (7605)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 81.5¢	$181.14	$197.8	+$16.67	51% 158-149 (307)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 83.6¢	$118.58	$111.49	-$7.09	53% 1124-990 (2114)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.18	$22.12	+$9.94	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$12.18	$15.61	+$3.43	40% 51-77 (128)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Upavg 46¢	$13.8	$4.45	+$7.15	58% 1791-1312 (3103)
SI SingWCTR	Downavg 15.4¢	$174.8	$1.71	-$173.09	13% 12-79 (91)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$3,187.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$120.13

Record

53%

1012-899 (1911)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,547.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$473.01

Record

50%

1159-1165 (2324)

bosona

Invested

$165.22

Value

$325.55

PnL

+$160.33

Record

50%

3793-3812 (7605)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$181.14

Value

$197.8

PnL

+$16.67

Record

51%

158-149 (307)

ply-pm2

Invested

$118.58

Value

$111.49

PnL

-$7.09

Record

53%

1124-990 (2114)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$22.12

PnL

+$9.94

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$3.43

Record

40%

51-77 (128)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$7.15

Record

58%

1791-1312 (3103)

SingWCTR

Down

Invested

$174.8

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$173.09

Record

13%

12-79 (91)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.