Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$345.71

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,186

Combined PnL-$263.92

Up3 traders

Total Value$638.64

Total Shares734

Combined PnL-$81.79

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$106.73	51% 1582-1533 (3115)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$523.04	$495.77	+$3.93	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$254.35	$251.72	-$6.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$238.74	$244.05	+$10.16
BO bosona	Downavg 99.1¢	$517.93	$391.28	-$124.61	50% 3912-3912 (7824)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$294.57	$329.68	+$35.11	49% 541-568 (1109)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$155.83	$167.59	+$11.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$138.74	$162.09	+$23.35
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.5¢	$253.86	$276.21	+$22.35	48% 1010-1104 (2114)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$263.41	$265.54	+$2.13	74% 846-295 (1141)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.4¢	$1.1K	$201.04	-$89.35	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$183.22	$182.47	+$3.38	49% 201-206 (407)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 58.1¢	$210.18	$120.11	-$82.36	46% 200-233 (433)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 69.5¢	$742.6	$97.22	-$13.09	47% 799-905 (1704)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$76.16	$83.93	+$27.77	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$66.81	$58.63	+$11.83	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$64.8	$52.94	-$11.86	46% 686-795 (1481)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$28.99	$31.24	+$2.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$35.81	$21.7	-$14.11
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$44.15	$46.55	+$2.4	51% 193-182 (375)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$17.95	$18.52	+$0.57	47% 685-774 (1459)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,399.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$106.73

Record

51%

1582-1533 (3115)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$523.04

Value

$495.77

PnL

+$3.93

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Up$254.3549¢-$6.23

Down$238.7450.4¢+$10.16

bosona

Down

Invested

$517.93

Value

$391.28

PnL

-$124.61

Record

50%

3912-3912 (7824)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$294.57

Value

$329.68

PnL

+$35.11

Record

49%

541-568 (1109)

Both legs:

Down$155.8366.5¢+$11.76

Up$138.7424.4¢+$23.35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$253.86

Value

$276.21

PnL

+$22.35

Record

48%

1010-1104 (2114)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$263.41

Value

$265.54

PnL

+$2.13

Record

74%

846-295 (1141)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,120.67

Value

$201.04

PnL

-$89.35

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$183.22

Value

$182.47

PnL

+$3.38

Record

49%

201-206 (407)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$210.18

Value

$120.11

PnL

-$82.36

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$742.6

Value

$97.22

PnL

-$13.09

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$76.16

Value

$83.93

PnL

+$27.77

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$66.81

Value

$58.63

PnL

+$11.83

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.8

Value

$52.94

PnL

-$11.86

Record

46%

686-795 (1481)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.15

Value

$46.55

PnL

+$2.4

Record

51%

193-182 (375)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$17.95

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$0.57

Record

47%

685-774 (1459)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.