Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 11AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$629.61

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 97.5¢

+52% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL+$622

Down2 traders

Total Value$28.17

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$7.6

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 62.8¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$352.52	50% 1138-1119 (2257)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$33.65	53% 990-886 (1876)
38 38791873984189	Upavg 47.7¢	$303.95	$541.72	+$237.78	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$9.06	$24.17	+$15.1	50% 3782-3804 (7586)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$28.5	$22.71	-$5.8	53% 1102-977 (2079)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$12.18	$16.03	+$3.85	40% 51-77 (128)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$11.5	$4	-$7.5	51% 154-147 (301)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,555.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$352.52

Record

50%

1138-1119 (2257)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,085.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$33.65

Record

53%

990-886 (1876)

38791873984189

Invested

$303.95

Value

$541.72

PnL

+$237.78

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.06

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$15.1

Record

50%

3782-3804 (7586)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$22.71

PnL

-$5.8

Record

53%

1102-977 (2079)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$3.85

Record

40%

51-77 (128)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.5

Value

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

154-147 (301)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.