Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up34¢Down66¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$54.17

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 66.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up34%

Down67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$890.02

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$70.44

Up2 traders

Total Value$68.14

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$16.27

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.7¢	$804.74	$745.58	-$22.2	51% 1582-1533 (3115)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$685	+$185	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$345	+$95
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$340	+$90
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$522.8	$488.9	-$2.7	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240	$266.4	+$23.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$252.59	$222.5	-$26.3
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$1.1K	$252.33	-$224.31	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.7¢	$251.98	$130.78	-$180.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$105.22	$121.55	-$43.39
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$180	$246.6	+$66.6	49% 201-206 (407)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$90	$124.2	+$34.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$122.4	+$32.4
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$397.99	$148.83	+$6.76	47% 799-905 (1704)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$63.05	$80.7	+$11.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$89.73	$68.13	-$4.87
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 47.9¢	$101.53	$65.68	-$35.85	49% 541-568 (1109)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$42.51	$58.66	+$16.15	49% 366-380 (746)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$47.59	$39.49	-$8.1	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$28.99	$21.35	+$2.36	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$13.81	$10.22	-$3.58	51% 193-182 (375)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$9.36	$9.48	+$0.12	52% 38-35 (73)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 51¢	$9.34	$5.68	-$3.66	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48¢	$1.42	$2.02	+$0.59	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$804.74

Value

$745.58

PnL

-$22.2

Record

51%

1582-1533 (3115)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$685

PnL

+$185

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$522.8

Value

$488.9

PnL

-$2.7

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Up$24050¢+$23.6

Down$252.5950.5¢-$26.3

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,090.25

Value

$252.33

PnL

-$224.31

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

Both legs:

Down$251.9859.7¢-$180.92

Up$105.2259.7¢-$43.39

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$180

Value

$246.6

PnL

+$66.6

Record

49%

201-206 (407)

Both legs:

Up$9050¢+$34.2

Down$9050¢+$32.4

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$397.99

Value

$148.83

PnL

+$6.76

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

Both legs:

Down$63.0552.4¢+$11.63

Up$89.7343.5¢-$4.87

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$101.53

Value

$65.68

PnL

-$35.85

Record

49%

541-568 (1109)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$42.51

Value

$58.66

PnL

+$16.15

Record

49%

366-380 (746)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$47.59

Value

$39.49

PnL

-$8.1

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$28.99

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$2.36

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$13.81

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$3.58

Record

51%

193-182 (375)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

38-35 (73)

suntori<$100

Down

Invested

$9.34

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$3.66

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$1.42

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.0%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.