Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10AM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$928.61

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 99.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,416

Combined PnL-$563.28

Down2 traders

Total Value$34.13

Total Shares853

Combined PnL-$365.33

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.5¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$109.8	50% 1112-1093 (2205)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.9¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$42.63	52% 969-877 (1846)
BO bosona	Upavg 95.9¢	$839.14	$600	-$239.14	50% 3775-3793 (7568)
MO mo-money	Upavg 94.5¢	$472.94	$401.75	-$71.2	45% 555-673 (1228)
AL almach	Upavg 96¢	$339.89	$242.78	-$97.11	46% 551-653 (1204)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 54¢	$46.97	$50.56	+$3.58	51% 152-146 (298)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 86.9¢	$49.15	$42.17	-$6.98	53% 1085-963 (2048)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$385.16	$32.93	-$352.23	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$14.3	$1.2	-$13.1	46% 837-975 (1812)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,664.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$109.8

Record

50%

1112-1093 (2205)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$2,555.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$42.63

Record

52%

969-877 (1846)

bosona

Invested

$839.14

Value

$600

PnL

-$239.14

Record

50%

3775-3793 (7568)

mo-money

Invested

$472.94

Value

$401.75

PnL

-$71.2

Record

45%

555-673 (1228)

almach

Invested

$339.89

Value

$242.78

PnL

-$97.11

Record

46%

551-653 (1204)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$50.56

PnL

+$3.58

Record

51%

152-146 (298)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$49.15

Value

$42.17

PnL

-$6.98

Record

53%

1085-963 (2048)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$385.16

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$352.23

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.3

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$13.1

Record

46%

837-975 (1812)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.