Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.0K
$20.11
98.8¢ → 97.7¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$19.99 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $201.88 | $201.77 | +$2.86 | 60% 1466-967 (2433) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.73 | $87.89 | +$0.23 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $3.49 | $21.66 | -$2.96 | 41% 371-536 (907) |
Invested
$1,688.43
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$19.99
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$201.88
Value
$201.77
PnL
+$2.86
Record
60%
1466-967 (2433)
Invested
$89.73
Value
$87.89
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
Invested
$3.49
Value
$21.66
PnL
-$2.96
Record
41%
371-536 (907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.