Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.0K
$38.03
97.5¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$39.7 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 99¢ | $100 | $93.86 | +$0.33 | 40% 6648-10054 (16702) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $20.34 | $20.4 | +$0.05 | 49% 10705-11356 (22061) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.7 | $0.55 | -$2.05 | 55% 490-407 (897) |
Invested
$1,810.74
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$39.7
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
HaradwaithInvested
$100
Value
$93.86
PnL
+$0.33
Record
40%
6648-10054 (16702)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$20.34
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
10705-11356 (22061)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$2.05
Record
55%
490-407 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.