Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$16.9K
$273.95
98¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | +$211.42 | 65% 2334-1260 (3594) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$24.31 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | +$30.02 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$6.34 | 92% 1209-102 (1311) |
AO aosdijfCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $7.4 | $1.1K | +$1.86 | 9% 45-437 (482) |
Invested
$5,829.94
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$211.42
Record
65%
2334-1260 (3594)
Invested
$4,986.41
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$24.31
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$3,305.08
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$30.02
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
FacaieInvested
$1,799.14
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$6.34
Record
92%
1209-102 (1311)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.86
Record
9%
45-437 (482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.