Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 3?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$14.3K
$341.55
97.4¢ → 99.7¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $9.4K | $9.2K | +$320.05 | 65% 2644-1393 (4037) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$11.77 | 59% 1173-799 (1972) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$11.43 | 59% 2385-1628 (4013) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.8¢ | $998 | $996 | -$2 | 93% 1384-105 (1489) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $55.16 | $55.43 | +$0.28 | 98% 6982-171 (7153) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $8.84 | $8.86 | +$0.02 | 48% 9289-10165 (19454) |
Invested
$9,403.09
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$320.05
Record
65%
2644-1393 (4037)
Invested
$2,718.92
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$11.77
Record
59%
1173-799 (1972)
Invested
$1,345
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$11.43
Record
59%
2385-1628 (4013)
FacaieInvested
$998
Value
$996
PnL
-$2
Record
93%
1384-105 (1489)
Invested
$55.16
Value
$55.43
PnL
+$0.28
Record
98%
6982-171 (7153)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.86
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
9289-10165 (19454)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.