Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$91.06
68¢ → 75.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EA easypredictCTR | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $333.27 | $474.49 | +$141.23 | 57% 265-201 (466) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $633.61 | $414.77 | -$56.34 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.6¢ | $371.99 | $309.77 | -$73.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $87.5 | $105 | +$17.5 | |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 65¢ | $462.68 | $412.86 | -$49.83 | 51% 323-306 (629) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $293.01 | $294.22 | +$1.21 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.17 | $5.62 | -$1.55 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
Invested
$333.27
Value
$474.49
PnL
+$141.23
Record
57%
265-201 (466)
Invested
$633.61
Value
$414.77
PnL
-$56.34
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Both legs:
Invested
$462.68
Value
$412.86
PnL
-$49.83
Record
51%
323-306 (629)
Invested
$293.01
Value
$294.22
PnL
+$1.21
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$1.55
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.