Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 12?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $756 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$756.46
$40.5
93.2¢ → 98.2¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93¢ | $719.09 | $706.14 | +$39.38 | 69% 5131-2295 (7426) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $44.39 | $45.36 | +$0.97 | 51% 15085-14273 (29358) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $5.03 | $4.94 | +$0.15 | 62% 35968-22491 (58459) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.