Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 66¢ · $262 held · ends Oct 30

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$261.93

Combined PnL

$47.25

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 65.5¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$258.41

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$47.3

No1 trader

Total Value$3.52

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 52.1¢	$194.41	$237.57	+$43.16	59% 1008-698 (1706)
KI kingofcoinflips<$100	Yesavg 52.8¢	$16	$19.85	+$3.85	54% 382-327 (709)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.57	$3.52	-$0.05	59% 847-591 (1438)
TO Tokor<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$0.7	$1	+$0.3	64% 746-428 (1174)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$194.41

Value

$237.57

PnL

+$43.16

Record

59%

1008-698 (1706)

kingofcoinflips<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$3.85

Record

54%

382-327 (709)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

847-591 (1438)

Tokor<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

64%

746-428 (1174)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.