Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 78¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.9K
$2.1K
62.2¢ → 77.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflips | Yesavg 57¢ | $4.2K | $6.2K | +$2.0K | 54% 382-327 (709) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Noavg 42.3¢ | $4.1K | $2.3K | $-1.9K | 65% 2334-1260 (3594) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.3¢ | $3.5K | $1.6K | $-2.0K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $551.3 | $629.2 | +$77.9 | |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 82¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$40.67 | 81% 232-55 (287) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $346.28 | $474.54 | +$128.26 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 18¢ | $244.08 | $216.96 | -$27.12 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
Invested
$4,242.92
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
54%
382-327 (709)
Invested
$4,145.24
Value
$2.3K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
65%
2334-1260 (3594)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,639.33
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$40.67
Record
81%
232-55 (287)
Invested
$346.28
Value
$474.54
PnL
+$128.26
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$244.08
Value
$216.96
PnL
-$27.12
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.