Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 72¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$5.8K
$668.49
64.5¢ → 71.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Yesavg 74.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$277.59 | 81% 230-55 (285) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 33.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$255.3 | 65% 2320-1257 (3577) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | +$271.73 | 59% 999-694 (1693) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Yesavg 56.6¢ | $660.66 | $1.0K | +$371.45 | 54% 381-327 (708) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $12.24 | $15.26 | +$3.02 | 59% 2138-1503 (3641) |
Invested
$1,492.41
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$277.59
Record
81%
230-55 (285)
Invested
$2,010.51
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$255.3
Record
65%
2320-1257 (3577)
Invested
$1,296.92
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$271.73
Record
59%
999-694 (1693)
Invested
$660.66
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$371.45
Record
54%
381-327 (708)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$15.26
PnL
+$3.02
Record
59%
2138-1503 (3641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.