Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 31?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 36¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
$382.14
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 84.6¢ | $7.9K | $6.0K | $-1.9K | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 27.1¢ | $1.5K | $3.4K | +$1.5K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 84.6¢ | $5.9K | $2.5K | $-3.4K | |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 79.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$256.69 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 12.9¢ | $160.44 | $789.76 | +$629.33 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 62.6¢ | $500.9 | $510.4 | +$9.5 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $131.23 | $104.21 | -$27.02 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.3¢ | $77.06 | $75.25 | -$1.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $54.17 | $28.96 | -$25.21 |
Invested
$7,914.7
Value
$6.0K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,574.12
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$256.69
Record
60%
1039-705 (1744)
Invested
$160.44
Value
$789.76
PnL
+$629.33
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$500.9
Value
$510.4
PnL
+$9.5
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$131.23
Value
$104.21
PnL
-$27.02
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.