Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$6.9K
$2.1K
30¢ → 55.8¢
+86% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 30¢ | $2.8K | $5.0K | +$2.2K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $896.35 | $924.11 | +$27.76 | 12% 23-162 (185) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 61¢ | $1.5K | $698.76 | +$41.93 | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $346.45 | $197.19 | -$149.26 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $33.87 | $42.87 | +$5.51 | 59% 862-600 (1462) |
Invested
$2,824.24
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$896.35
Value
$924.11
PnL
+$27.76
Record
12%
23-162 (185)
Invested
$1,515.93
Value
$698.76
PnL
+$41.93
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Invested
$346.45
Value
$197.19
PnL
-$149.26
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$33.87
Value
$42.87
PnL
+$5.51
Record
59%
862-600 (1462)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.