Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $27K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$26.7K
$-1.1K
97.4¢ → 99.3¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $16.2K | $15.5K | -$701.04 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 98¢ | $5.5K | $4.8K | -$267.61 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $4.4K | $4.2K | -$170.75 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
NO nonkenny90 | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$2.63 | 89% 4588-544 (5132) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $24.22 | $22.9 | -$1.31 | 59% 852-595 (1447) |
Invested
$16,194.32
Value
$15.5K
PnL
-$701.04
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$5,527.24
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$267.61
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$4,374.07
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$170.75
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Invested
$2,204.63
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$2.63
Record
89%
4588-544 (5132)
Invested
$24.22
Value
$22.9
PnL
-$1.31
Record
59%
852-595 (1447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.