Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 89¢ · $34K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$34.5K
$-2.3K
96.8¢ → 88.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.3¢ | $26.6K | $24.5K | $-2.1K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
EA easypredict | Yesavg 98.9¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$99.77 | 57% 265-203 (468) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $4.1K | $3.1K | -$48 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$45.88 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 89.7¢ | $364.09 | $359.32 | -$4.77 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
Invested
$26,647.78
Value
$24.5K
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$4,263.92
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$99.77
Record
57%
265-203 (468)
Invested
$4,079
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$48
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$2,493.27
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$45.88
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$364.09
Value
$359.32
PnL
-$4.77
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.