Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 16?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$15.4K
$450.12
92.7¢ → 98¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $10.7K | $11.5K | +$733.92 | 69% 206-92 (298) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 97.2¢ | $2.8K | $2.4K | -$121.83 | 62% 16-10 (26) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$2.02 | 72% 137-54 (191) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91.6¢ | $101.61 | $107.99 | +$6.39 | 52% 135-126 (261) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $140 | $19 | -$121 | 5% 8-152 (160) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $24.53 | $12.66 | -$0.09 | 32% 224-485 (709) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $62.41 | $11.02 | -$51.39 | 25% 8-24 (32) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $67.03 | $9.72 | +$2.06 | 49% 1545-1582 (3127) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.42 | $0.46 | +$0.05 | 48% 204-219 (423) |
Invested
$10,745.85
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$733.92
Record
69%
206-92 (298)
Invested
$2,791.31
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$121.83
Record
62%
16-10 (26)
Invested
$1,314.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$2.02
Record
72%
137-54 (191)
Invested
$101.61
Value
$107.99
PnL
+$6.39
Record
52%
135-126 (261)
Invested
$140
Value
$19
PnL
-$121
Record
5%
8-152 (160)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$24.53
Value
$12.66
PnL
-$0.09
Record
32%
224-485 (709)
Invested
$62.41
Value
$11.02
PnL
-$51.39
Record
25%
8-24 (32)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$67.03
Value
$9.72
PnL
+$2.06
Record
49%
1545-1582 (3127)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.46
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
204-219 (423)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.