Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$17.6K
$198.75
98.2¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98¢ | $14.0K | $13.9K | +$184.87 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$12.5 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$0.73 | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Yesavg 98¢ | $18.79 | $19.04 | +$0.26 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $6.74 | $8.6 | +$1.86 | 29% 35-86 (121) |
Invested
$14,030.79
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$184.87
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
FacaieInvested
$1,980.42
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$12.5
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
Invested
$1,643.86
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$0.73
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$19.04
PnL
+$0.26
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$6.74
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$1.86
Record
29%
35-86 (121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.