Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 13?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 92¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$9.2K
-$112.36
92.6¢ → 92¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 93¢ | $6.5K | $6.4K | -$179.68 | 69% 5131-2295 (7426) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Noavg 7.4¢ | $535.01 | $1.4K | +$41.43 | 46% 684-807 (1491) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 91¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$22.5 | 53% 386-340 (726) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $12.73 | $12.38 | -$0.36 | 51% 15086-14276 (29362) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Noavg 5.3¢ | $2.99 | $1.94 | +$3.75 | 39% 503-771 (1274) |
Invested
$6,533.32
Value
$6.4K
PnL
-$179.68
Record
69%
5131-2295 (7426)
Invested
$535.01
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$41.43
Record
46%
684-807 (1491)
Invested
$1,365
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$22.5
Record
53%
386-340 (726)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$12.73
Value
$12.38
PnL
-$0.36
Record
51%
15086-14276 (29362)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$3.75
Record
39%
503-771 (1274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.