Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$21.4K
$294.22
98.1¢ → 99.7¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $17.9K | $17.8K | +$296.67 | 65% 2415-1284 (3699) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $2.5K | $1.7K | -$8.93 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 99.6¢ | $996 | $996.5 | -$0.5 | 92% 1260-105 (1365) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.8¢ | $811.15 | $817.72 | +$6.16 | 59% 2201-1554 (3755) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $23.26 | $23.16 | +$0.83 | 59% 871-604 (1475) |
Invested
$17,914.42
Value
$17.8K
PnL
+$296.67
Record
65%
2415-1284 (3699)
Invested
$2,472.17
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$8.93
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
FacaieInvested
$996
Value
$996.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
92%
1260-105 (1365)
Invested
$811.15
Value
$817.72
PnL
+$6.16
Record
59%
2201-1554 (3755)
Invested
$23.26
Value
$23.16
PnL
+$0.83
Record
59%
871-604 (1475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.