Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 16?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$14.1K
$3.2K
65.6¢ → 87.5¢
+33% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $14.5K | $5.9K | -$29.03 | 68% 208-98 (306) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 68.6¢ | $4.8K | $5.1K | +$1.0K | 5% 8-152 (160) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | +$77.54 | 72% 139-54 (193) |
TS Tsamam | Noavg 9¢ | $388.89 | $1.3K | +$3.5K | — |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $2.7K | $210.11 | -$751.06 | 49% 212-223 (435) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 86.5¢ | $1.7K | $5.59 | -$618.95 | 52% 141-130 (271) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $4.4 | $4.65 | +$0.26 | 50% 1618-1648 (3266) |
Invested
$14,542.8
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$29.03
Record
68%
208-98 (306)
Invested
$4,758.93
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
5%
8-152 (160)
Invested
$1,788.14
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$77.54
Record
72%
139-54 (193)
Invested
$388.89
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
—
Invested
$2,711.36
Value
$210.11
PnL
-$751.06
Record
49%
212-223 (435)
Invested
$1,700.98
Value
$5.59
PnL
-$618.95
Record
52%
141-130 (271)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
1618-1648 (3266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.