Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 25.1¢

-61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares10,444

Combined PnL+$678.4

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares9,757

Combined PnL$-3.0K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 27.4¢	$7.3K	$3.8K	+$980.94	69% 173-78 (251)
SS ssddssd	Noavg 45.5¢	$2.1K	$3.1K	+$968.48	4% 6-150 (156)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 67.6¢	$7.3K	$2.2K	$-2.6K	50% 180-183 (363)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR	Yesavg 62.5¢	$693.13	$384.82	-$308.3	25% 6-18 (24)
MA Marioy	Noavg 76.1¢	$2.1K	$237.54	$-1.3K	— 7-6 (13)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 42.7¢	$328.13	$190.53	-$122.85	73% 118-44 (162)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$118.82	$172.74	+$305.17	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ No leg	Noavg 14.4¢	$24.46	$118.3	+$297.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$46.82	$54.44	+$7.62
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.7¢	$18	$16.66	-$1.34	67% 16-8 (24)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 29¢	$29.95	$12.01	+$14.62	48% 1309-1403 (2712)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$21.05	$8.64	+$10.21	66% 184-96 (280)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$1.39	$2.76	+$1.37	— 10-4 (14)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$7,305.63

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$980.94

Record

69%

173-78 (251)

ssddssd

Invested

$2,095.45

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$968.48

Record

6-150 (156)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,317.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

50%

180-183 (363)

PhongLeXBTCTR

Yes

Invested

$693.13

Value

$384.82

PnL

-$308.3

Record

25%

6-18 (24)

Marioy

Invested

$2,051.24

Value

$237.54

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

7-6 (13)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$328.13

Value

$190.53

PnL

-$122.85

Record

73%

118-44 (162)

NotJumpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$118.82

Value

$172.74

PnL

+$305.17

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

No$24.4614.4¢+$297.54

Yes$46.8226.1¢+$7.62

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$16.66

PnL

-$1.34

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$14.62

Record

48%

1309-1403 (2712)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.05

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$10.21

Record

66%

184-96 (280)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$1.37

Record

—

10-4 (14)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

363.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.