Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$941.87

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 78.3¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,396

Combined PnL+$583.47

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares9,281

Combined PnL+$358.4

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Marioy	Yesavg 91¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$592	— 5-4 (9)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 72.3¢	$5.7K	$2.3K	+$1.6K	50% 157-155 (312)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 30¢	$4.4K	$1.9K	+$375.66	68% 148-69 (217)
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 88.9¢	$1.0K	$896.87	-$149.57	3% 5-148 (153)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 82.6¢	$1.1K	$127.78	-$252.67	72% 102-39 (141)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$96.39	$79.33	-$17.06	58% 26-19 (45)
NO NotJump	Yesavg 70¢	$583.79	$60.89	-$71.14	53% 631-566 (1197)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 63.6¢	$21.91	$26.27	+$4.36	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Noavg 21.9¢	$25.75	$8.33	-$0.2	48% 1182-1297 (2479)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$3,640

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$592

Record

—

5-4 (9)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$5,742.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

50%

157-155 (312)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$4,386.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$375.66

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$1,046.44

Value

$896.87

PnL

-$149.57

Record

5-148 (153)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$1,098.2

Value

$127.78

PnL

-$252.67

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Invested

$96.39

Value

$79.33

PnL

-$17.06

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$583.79

Value

$60.89

PnL

-$71.14

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.91

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$4.36

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$25.75

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

1182-1297 (2479)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.5%

78.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.