Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 16?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$6.2K
$27.16
97.5¢ → 98.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$57.06 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $175.76 | $176.12 | +$0.36 | 43% 2565-3363 (5928) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.2¢ | $90.82 | $61.14 | -$29.68 | 48% 93-99 (192) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.4¢ | $14.76 | $14.78 | +$0.02 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.5¢ | $1.66 | $1.06 | -$0.6 | — 0-2 (2) |
Invested
$5,883.63
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$57.06
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$175.76
Value
$176.12
PnL
+$0.36
Record
43%
2565-3363 (5928)
Invested
$90.82
Value
$61.14
PnL
-$29.68
Record
48%
93-99 (192)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$14.76
Value
$14.78
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.6
Record
—
0-2 (2)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.