Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares18,488

Combined PnL$-3.6K

No2 traders

Total Value$49.4

Total Shares9,879

Combined PnL-$97.14

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 98.1¢	$14.8K	$11.9K	$-2.9K	65% 87-46 (133)
EA easypredict	Yesavg 98.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$317.72	— 0-2 (2)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 98.8¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$266.31	72% 62-24 (86)
NO NotJump	Yesavg 98.9¢	$247.25	$197.5	-$49.75	55% 367-301 (668)
Facaie	Yesavg 99¢	$198.1	$158	-$40.1	94% 45-3 (48)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Noavg 1.6¢	$123.96	$32.81	-$56.76	— 2-1 (3)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$56.96	$16.58	-$40.38	48% 93-99 (192)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 98.7¢	$44.79	$3.78	-$3.3	47% 738-817 (1555)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$14,790.78

Value

$11.9K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

easypredict

Yes

Invested

$1,585.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$317.72

Record

—

0-2 (2)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$1,328.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$266.31

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$247.25

Value

$197.5

PnL

-$49.75

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$198.1

Value

$158

PnL

-$40.1

Record

94%

45-3 (48)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Invested

$123.96

Value

$32.81

PnL

-$56.76

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$56.96

Value

$16.58

PnL

-$40.38

Record

48%

93-99 (192)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.79

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$3.3

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.