Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on November 18?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 18

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 63¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares15,520

Combined PnL+$766.22

No4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares16,327

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
8DDD	Yesavg 59.8¢	$7.3K	$6.4K	+$418.72	14% 6-38 (44)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$8.2K	$3.7K	+$4.0K	68% 208-100 (308)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Noavg 34.7¢	$4.2K	$1.9K	-$216.05	62% 16-10 (26)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 59.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$245.29	49% 213-224 (437)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 61.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$126.31	52% 141-132 (273)
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 64.9¢	$519.3	$495.2	-$24.1	5% 8-152 (160)
EG Egozic86CTR	Noavg 60.1¢	$150	$95.04	-$54.96	91% 29-3 (32)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Noavg 20.6¢	$70.69	$9.27	+$4.4	50% 1631-1654 (3285)

8DDD

Yes

Invested

$7,320.23

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$418.72

Record

14%

6-38 (44)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$8,185.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

68%

208-100 (308)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Invested

$4,158.71

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$216.05

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$1,667.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$245.29

Record

49%

213-224 (437)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$1,341.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$126.31

Record

52%

141-132 (273)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$519.3

Value

$495.2

PnL

-$24.1

Record

8-152 (160)

Egozic86CTR

Invested

$150

Value

$95.04

PnL

-$54.96

Record

91%

29-3 (32)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$70.69

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$4.4

Record

50%

1631-1654 (3285)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.7%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.