Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on November 17?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 37¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 37¢

-38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,572

Combined PnL+$6.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,166

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 39.1¢	$7.4K	$3.1K	+$6.3K	68% 208-98 (306)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 56.1¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$543.33	49% 212-223 (435)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 63.3¢	$761.85	$469.76	-$292.09	52% 141-130 (271)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Yesavg 52.9¢	$943.52	$204.68	-$51.49	62% 16-10 (26)
EG Egozic86	Noavg 59.4¢	$150	$153.87	+$3.87	91% 29-3 (32)
TS Tsamam	Noavg 3¢	$6	$118.84	+$112.84	—
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 96.8¢	$253.57	$92.04	-$153.51	41% 2653-3786 (6439)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 44.7¢	$212.44	$19.36	+$0.87	50% 1618-1648 (3266)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$1.52	$7.32	+$5.8	67% 20-10 (30)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$4.98	$2.97	+$0.47	36% 1595-2778 (4373)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$7,393.52

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

68%

208-98 (306)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,787.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$543.33

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$761.85

Value

$469.76

PnL

-$292.09

Record

52%

141-130 (271)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Yes

Invested

$943.52

Value

$204.68

PnL

-$51.49

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

Egozic86

Invested

$150

Value

$153.87

PnL

+$3.87

Record

91%

29-3 (32)

Tsamam

Invested

Value

$118.84

PnL

+$112.84

Record

—

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$253.57

Value

$92.04

PnL

-$153.51

Record

41%

2653-3786 (6439)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$212.44

Value

$19.36

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$5.8

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.47

Record

36%

1595-2778 (4373)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

251.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.