Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on November 17?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 66¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 17

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 66.2¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares10,578

Combined PnL-$624.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares13,608

Combined PnL$-2.3K

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TS TsamamCTR	Noavg 2.7¢	$239.98	$3.8K	+$3.5K	—
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 67.1¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$384.66	49% 212-223 (435)
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 76.3¢	$4.0K	$2.7K	$-1.2K	5% 8-152 (160)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 71.9¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$643.77	52% 141-130 (271)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 29.6¢	$23.4K	$542.12	$-4.2K	68% 208-98 (306)
AC AckbarCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$4.9	$41.46	+$36.56	48% 14-15 (29)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 88.3¢	$168.7	$7.47	-$7.38	50% 1618-1648 (3266)

TsamamCTR

Invested

$239.98

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

—

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$3,385.14

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$384.66

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$3,986.43

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

8-152 (160)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$2,396.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$643.77

Record

52%

141-130 (271)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$23,361.53

Value

$542.12

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

68%

208-98 (306)

AckbarCTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$41.46

PnL

+$36.56

Record

48%

14-15 (29)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$168.7

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$7.38

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.7%

66.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.