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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the biggest earthquake on November 8, 2026 be under 5.3?
Resolved Yes. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$35.89
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$35.89
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | — | -$35.89 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 47-37 (84) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 80% 61-15 (76) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | — | — | +$0 | 72% 18-7 (25) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 3% 4-132 (136) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 6% 9-141 (150) |
CI
cigarettesCTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$35.89
Record
38%
88-145 (233)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
47-37 (84)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
61-15 (76)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
18-7 (25)
HA
haveagooddayCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
4-132 (136)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
6%
9-141 (150)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x668399f3...564f46
Slug
biggest-earthquake-2026-11-08-under-5-3